Architects (software for sure, building also I suspect) often think two and three years out from where they are now. It is often easier to see what is coming, then to determine the what of what you are standing on.
So what is the horizon? I’ve had people tell me that you can’t look beyond 18 months because frankly technology changes so much. But that’s not really true. Technology in and of itself always reveals what is next, in what we are using right now. Television has advanced to the point where DVR’s (which were high end items five years ago) are now common place.
Taking the known (DVR) technology and pushing that out two years from now, what would the next generation DVR look like?
1. Cheaper (advertisers pay a portion of the cost of the DVR – so that you can’t actually fast forward through the ads).
2. Easier interface that you can control remotely (like Slingboxes today).
3. DVR only events (again advertisers provide this as a service)
But is two years enough? Today there are devices that can act as portal DVR’s (you can use them to record tv in your home, and take them with you on the road as well).
By focusing only on the DVR we limit the view of what might be coming. If we broaden the view we can take the opportunity to stretch out to see what might be around the corner.
DVR’s as a function of the telelvision (integrated).
Live TV dying. Direct broadcast to internet sites that you then download and watch when you can. Beyond on demand!
While this discussion was just me playing with what might be, it still brings up the topic of how and what of viewing the future. Its what Archtiect’s do (software) at least the good ones do. There are many architects down in the weeds of operation and other specific specialities that lose the ability quickly to see where things are heading.
But it is a core concept, build on the known. But always look to the future.